The Job Creation Blog Year to Date March,

.Monitoring Tony Abbott’s claim of 1 million jobs in 5 years.
Broken down that is 200,000 jobs a year or 548 Jobs per day to be created
Source of Data Australian Bureau of Statistics 6202.0 Labour Force Australia
Source of Abbott Data.
Year Month Full time Jobs created/Lost ABS Data Part time Jobs created/Lost. ABS Data Total Jobs created/Lost. ABS Data Year to Date Jobs created/Lost ABS Data Target Jobs promised under Abbott policy Election to date jobs to be created by Abbott policy Net Jobs Created/Lost. Abbott policy Total Jobs created/Lost Year to date. ABS + Abbott policy

2013

September

5000

4100

9100

9100

12604

12604

-3,504

-3504

2013

October

-27900

28900

1000

10100

16988

29592

-15,988

-19,492

2013

November

15500

5500

21000

31100

16440

46032

4,560

-14,932

2013

December

-31600

9000

-22600

8500

16988

63020

-39,588

-54,520

2014

2014

JanuaryFebruary

-7100

80500

3400

-33300

-3700

47200

4800

52000

16988

15433

80008

95441

-20,688

31767

-75,208

-43441

 

Highlights this month.

The February data from the bureau of Statistics showed an increase of 80,500 new full time jobs and a decrease of 33,000 part time jobs. This gives us a net figure of 47,200 new jobs created. Against his stated aim of creating 1 million jobs in 5 years or 200,000 a year the Abbott government moved from achieving 6% of their aim to achieving 54% of their aim. Which is 43,441 jobs behind
Given the poor figures in previous months, I was astonished at this figure.
Others were astonished and wrote about it in the papers.
Here is Peter Martin, Fairfax economics correspondent.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/buoys-for-the-jobs-as-the-abs-pulls-its-figure-out-20140313-34pm8.html

An extra 80,500 full-time jobs? Don’t believe it for an instant. The Bureau of Statistics doesn’t, and it produced the figure.
The rest of the article is his take on what happened to the figure.
The ABS actually says that there is a sampling error in the data that can range from -9900 to 104500 So the figure of 47,300 can vary by plus 57,200 or minus 57,200.

So astonished that I decided to see how “different” this figure was in the reporting of Labor force Statistics since 1994.
I chose the Trend data and not the seasonally adjusted data as is shown in the table above and looked for changes of greater than 40,000 new jobs created in any month.

(Apologies to readers. There is supposed to be a table of Monthly Job figures here but It is not included because the WordPress facility for adding Word formatted files has gone walkabout. That is also why this post is late.)

The only month where this has happened (over 40,000 new jobs created) was in January 2003.
So the figure of 47,200 new jobs is just extraordinary. Mainly because it uses seasonally adjusted Data and not trend Data.
Whilst I was inputting the figures into the spreadsheet I also noticed that each month was different. For example if January reported a job number of 100 and February said a job number of 110, that meant that 10 jobs had been created. However when I went to the march figures, the February figure might have said 115 and the march figure 120 Which means that 5 new jobs had been created. Because the February figure had changed from 110 to 115 somewhere we had lost 5 jobs.
To compensate for this I then went to the January figures of each year and “locked them in” as the beginning and ending figures for the year.
Then I looked at the difference between the total of each month and the value when you took away December each year from January.
Here is that table.

Increase Decrease in Total Employment Per Month
based on ABS6202.0 Labour Force Statistics. (Trend) Increase Difference
Positive = overestimate Month on month

Negative = underestimate Month on month
December          January          Total                     Difference  from monthly figures.
Year
1994    7867800              8060500        192700                  3800
1995    8077200              8312100         234900               -44800
1996    8325300              8406800         81500                 -16700
1997    8419000              8509800         90800                 -19600
1998    8526600              8681900         155300               -20500
1999    8690600              8901800         211200                -53100
2000    8914900              9081800        166900                 -7000
2001    9072100              9211400        139300                 -95300
2002    9225300              9477300        252000                 -97300
2003    9517400              9656600        139200                  7800
2004    9679700              9824800        145100                  33400
2005    9851600             10027000       175400                  4900
2006   10027400            10315300       287900                 -101300
2007   10327900            10597400       269500                 -80400
2008   10616600            10745100       128500                  10800
2009   10745400            10909400       164000                  -127400
2010   10936200            11421200       485000                   -211100
2011   11442800            11446800        4000                        56900
2012   11448500            11541600        93100                    -27000
2013   11546700            11468400       -78300                   142100

(If this Table appears wonky its because The Paste from Word function has disappeared from WordPress).
As you can see from the total column a positive number is an overestimation of the figures month on month. A negative is an underestimation of the jobs created in that year.

So why aren’t the Jobs figures actually representative of the real Jobs being created in the Economy? Its because they are done using a survey and whilst they try and make the survey as accurate as possible, its probably not achievable.

If you want to read about how they do their trend, their Seasonally adjusted stuff and their survey, the ABS explains it in the data they produce each month.

 

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