Will Abbott create one million new Jobs in 5 years?

Abbott fact check – “Within five years I am confident that our Economy can deliver at least a million new jobs, and two million within the next decade.”

 A direct quote taken from the Liberal party plan Page 3 “Real Solutions for all Australians.”

Wow! what a huge aspiration (my thoughts).  “We will create one million jobs over the next five years” (page 5 of the real Solutions).

What does that mean? Well it means that on average each year over 5 years the coalition WILL create 200,000 new jobs per year. That is a figure of 547.9 jobs a day.

So in his first term (3 years) in Government, Abbott will create 600,000 new jobs.

I happened to have an interest in the Employment statistics and the Underemployment statistics which are provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

By the way, the ABS is a department of the Treasury, so Joe Hockey is their Minister. Do you remember he was the the Opposition Shadow Treasurer who didn’t believe the figures the Treasury provided for the Budget? So he probably doesn’t believe the ABS figures either. But I do.

The detail I am about to reveal comes from the Series 6265.0 Underemployed Workers and 6202.0 Labour Force Australia.

I looked at a 9 year period from 2004 to 2012 so for a period of 4 years under the Howard Liberal National Coalition and 5 years of Labor Government.

The table below is the Summary.

Year Total Employed Workers Fully Employed % of Total Workers. Underemployed Workers % of Total Workers. Not Fully employed % of Total Workers. Increase in Workers  % Increase in Workers Increase in Fully employed % Increase in Fully employed Increase/decrease in Underemployed % Increase in Underemployed

2004

9724000

9055800

93.13%

578300

5.95%

673500

6.93%

2005

10025000

9363300

93.40%

566700

5.65%

661900

6.60%

301000

3.00%

307500

3.28%

-11600

-2.05%

2006

10290000

9653000

93.81%

544500

5.29%

637000

6.19%

265000

2.58%

289700

3.00%

-22200

-4.08%

2007

10530100

9912000

94.13%

518300

4.92%

618000

5.87%

240100

2.28%

259000

2.61%

-26200

-5.05%

2008

10743000

10003900

93.12%

655100

6.10%

739000

6.88%

212900

1.98%

91900

0.92%

136800

20.88%

2009

10872100

9972700

91.73%

811600

7.46%

899500

8.27%

129100

1.19%

-31200

-0.31%

156500

19.28%

2010

11397700

10507200

92.19%

807300

7.08%

890500

7.81%

525600

4.61%

534500

5.09%

-4300

-0.53%

2011

11514700

10635700

92.37%

786900

6.83%

879000

7.63%

117000

1.02%

128500

1.21%

-20400

-2.59%

2012

11579400

10702300

92.43%

783900

6.77%

877000

7.57%

64700

0.56%

66600

0.62%

-3000

-0.38%

Under the Howard Liberal National Government the total number of employed workers in 2004 was 9,724,000 and in 2007, 10,530,100, an increase of 806,100 jobs in 3 years.

That is an average increase of 736 persons per day. The actual increase per year is shown in the ninth column from the left. You will see the creation of new jobs declined in the last 3 years of the Howard government.

That decline continued in the first full year of the Rudd Labor Government and after the Global Financial Crisis hit in 2008.  The 2009 figures showed a near collapse to 129,100 increase in workers – a drop of 83,800 jobs or 229 workers per day from 2008 to 2009.

In February 2009, came the Labor stimulus package which contained the solar rebate and the insulation program. This much criticised stimulus spend by Labor to prop up the economy recognised the fact that job growth had stalled and that there was a rapid decrease in the fully employed as well as a dramatic increase in underemployed.

As a result of that stimulus package the net job increase in 2010 was 525,600 new jobs and an increase in fully employed of 534,500, so it reversed the short term fall in jobs which were fully employed as well as the underemployment numbers growth.

Between 2008 and 2011 labor created 771,700 jobs of which 525,600 were created in one year as a result of the 2009 stimulus package.

The 525,600 represents a growth in jobs of 1440 per day.

Once the majority of the stimulus package had come off the next year’s growth (2011) was only 117,000 and in 2012 the job growth was 64.700.

These figures tell me that we are not out of the woods yet regarding the economic circumstances in Australia. Jobs growth is declining year on year. Even so the Labor Government left Australia with a AAA credit rating based on the way that the Labor Government nurtured the economy through the Global Financial Crisis.

All we could hear were the superlative negatives of the Coalition. Ripping into the sound and prudent financial policy that Rudd, Gillard and Swan had put into place. Pulling apart the Solar package and carping about the deaths of workers due to entirely other reasons than a stimulus package, rather poor Occupational Health and Safety procedures and training by the people who installed the insulation.

To see my analysis of these deaths please read this blog post.

https://vinceogrady.wordpress.com/2013/07/08/the-old-chestnut-the-home-installation-scheme-the/

But where do these ABS statistics leave the Coalition?

I would say in a place where they don’t want to be because they have no plans to actually do anything about the creation of jobs. At the rate that jobs grew in 2011 and 2012 (320 and 177 per day respectively), that is a tad behind the 200,000 per year mark that Abbott seems to think he can achieve. In fact on 2012 figures, it’s 370 jobs per day behind.

With the forecast for unemployment to rise, the jobs market looks as if it will be very flat and has no chance of reaching a 200,000 per year growth at this moment in time.

So the fact check of Tony Abbott and his party’s policy of creating 200,000 jobs a year or 547.9 jobs a day looks decidedly dicey to say the least.

Many people touted that this so called Policy document “Real Solutions” was built on a foundation of straw. I think they were right.

It just goes to show that when you do a little bit of real research into an issue, then it either clothes it in truth or undresses it as a load of old puffery.  It doesn’t take much to blow this document down, and I didn’t even have to Huff and Puff.

Update 9 November 2013.

On 7th November the Australian Bureau of Statistics published the Latest Labour force survey.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0

The Abbott/Hockey government isn’t off to a flyer.

Employment has reduced by 4,200, The unemployed have risen 1,100 and the unemployment rate has gone from 5.7% to 5.8%.

Nor does the creation of jobs by this government bode well.

Yesterday 8th November, the policy of reducing jobs in the public service by 12,000 hit home at the CSIRO. A quarter of their workforce are on short term contracts which cannot be renewed under the new Abbott/Hockey austerity measures.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, Qantas decided to close its heavy maintenance at Avalon airport, another blow to the Geelong region, where closures of the Ford Engine Plant and sale of the Shell refinery do not bode well for many Geelong based workers.

Meanwhile, we hear through the press that Holden wants to have a definitive answer regarding future support for their Australian operations by Christmas. Before the Sept 7th Election The Abbott led coalition pledged not to help the Car Industry further.

Last week Golden Circle (owned by Heinz), announced the closure of its Mil Park, Victoria Plant with a loss of 123 food processing jobs in March 2014. The figure of affected fruit growers was not mentioned.

There is a simple fact to bear in mind here. If people are in work, they consume, If they are not they don’t and all the goods they normally buy do not have a market, therefore the market shrinks.

That is why the Labor government stimulated the economy in February 2009. It actually created 534,500 new jobs and that is what saved us from the Global Financial crisis and its accompanying world recession.

The debt it created is manageable.

This conservative government seem not to want to invest in people and their prosperity, at least not yet.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

7 thoughts on “Will Abbott create one million new Jobs in 5 years?

  1. Well researched Vince. If only MSM “journalists” were as dedicated perhaps some of the populace would gain some knowledge of the truth instead of the partisan crap they are now fed. Integrity seems to have become a non-word.

    • The MSM can’t do this kind of research or article because it will be touted as leftie bias and ignored. Abbott supporters just don’t get it (much like Abbott and Co), Abbott is in Government now. In opposition he could get away with misleading statements and running from questions and scrutiny but now as Government he can’t.

      The right see this scrutiny as leftie bias. What a world we live in…

      • I agree with the sentiment expressed Sad Kanga. The research done here is eminently verifiable through the Australian bureau of Statistics where I got the figures from. I, unlike others in the MSM will not write on something unless I have done the research and can back up my assertions.

        For some reason the MSM seem unwilling to actually research stories. The devil is always in the detail.

        There is always another aspect that we tend not to consider and that is that people are disengaged because of the stuff they are told. They are fed with high level spin all the time and just are uninterested in the real story. Job growth is not a really interesting subject for the majority of people however it is a very important thing to individuals when they need a job. They seem not to make the junction between their needs individually and the collective needs of Australians and its effect on the economy.

    • Thanks Joy and sorry for the late response. I use a “learned behaviour” to check statements made by politicians. When they say something like I have approved 131 foreign investment decisions (Hockey in his presser on the rejection of Graincorp takeover), I check it up.

      In 2010-2011 there were over 10,741 approvals which is 29.42 a day. Valued at 176,689 $M So a lot. If Hockey has only approved 131, what is he doing or is he just talking rubbish as usual.

      Likewise when Abbott said that the labor government took $21 Billion out of Defence before the Election i checked with Defence and they sent back a letter refuting that. (See my Blog on Defence Pork Pies). The original article was published as “Abbott’s helicopter landing crock” on Independent Australia.

      There is no doubt that the public are being told lies by this Coalition government and the Press are asleep at the wheel in telling the stories that should be told. Its a very sad and bad state of affairs.

  2. Pingback: Christoper Pyne throws the Education baby out with the Gonski Report. | vinceogrady

  3. Pingback: The truth about Disability in Australia | vinceogrady

  4. Pingback: The Job Creation Blog Australia Year to Date February. | vinceogrady

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s